Njau, E. C. (2004) The timing of the Next Little Ice Age. Il nuovo cimento C, 27 (2). pp. 133-141. ISSN 1826-9885
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Abstract
We show that sunspot number variations since 5400 BC are equal to a sum of one constant component K with a value of about 114ann ual sunspots, an oscillation with a mean period of 2450 years as well as the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th (nonlinearly generated) harmonics of this oscillation. Variations of the 11-year sunspot cycles are also equated to a summation of the same constant K and different variable components. Since sunspot numbers indicate the general state of activity of the Sun in a statistical way, this finding implies that the Sun’s activity has a constant component upon which some variable components are superimposed. Between two adjacent minima of the 2450 years oscillation, there is a large block of continuously non-zero sunspot number variations pattern whose length is consistently equal to 1700 years. Each of these blocks starts and ends at considerably cool periods of global climate or little ice ages. The last and ongoing block started near the end of the last Little Ice Age (1550–1700 AD) and is expected to end in about the year 3440. On this basis the next little ice age is expected to start at about the latter year.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Climatology ; Solar modulation and geophysical effects |
| Subjects: | 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 550 Scienze della Terra > 551.6 Climatologia e tempo atmosferico (Classificare qui i lo studio dei Cambiamenti climatici) |
| Depositing User: | Marina Spanti |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Mar 2020 10:54 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Mar 2020 10:54 |
| URI: | http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/15229 |
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