Falco, M. and Costa, P. and Romano, P. (2019) Solar flare forecasting using photospheric active region properties. Il nuovo cimento C, 42 (1). pp. 1-3. ISSN 1826-9885
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Abstract
Daily observations of the photosphere are performed by the Equatorial Spar of INAF- Catania Astrophysical Observatory (INAF-OACt). In this poster we describe the results obtained by a tool developed for solar flare forecasting on the base of photospheric active region properties. We measured five parameters describing the morphology of the active regions appeared on the solar disc from January 2002 up today: area, Zurich class, number of pores and sunspots, relative importance between leading spot and density of the sunspot population and type of penumbra of the main sunspot. By means of a linear combination of these parameters we determined the probability that a flare of C-, M- and X- class occurs in such active regions. Comparing our forecasting with the number of flares registered by GOES satellites in the 1 - 8 ˚A X-ray band during the subsequent 24 hrs we evaluate the accuracy of our method using different skill scores.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Subjects: | 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 530 Fisica |
| Depositing User: | Marina Spanti |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Nov 2020 09:56 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Nov 2020 09:56 |
| URI: | http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/20378 |
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