The Probabilistic Drag Based Model for ICME propagation

Berrilli, F. and Cristaldi, A. and Del Moro, D. and Forte, R. and Giovannelli, L. and Napoletano, G. and Pietropaolo, E. (2019) The Probabilistic Drag Based Model for ICME propagation. Il nuovo cimento C, 42 (1). pp. 1-4. ISSN 1826-9885

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ICME (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection) are violent phenomena of solar activity that affect the whole heliosphere and the prediction of their impact on different solar system bodies is one of the primary goals of the planetary space weather forecasting. We present some results from the application of the P-DBM (Probabilistic Drag Based Model) to propagate a sample of ICMEs from their sources on the solar surface into the heliosphere. We made use of recent works who tracked the ICMEs through their journeys using data from several spacecraft, tracing the ICMEs trajectory further than Earth. Considering the extremely short computation time needed by the P-DBM to propagate ICMEs into the whole heliosphere, and its accuracy in reproducing the observations, we remark that it is a promising candidate for ICME Time of Arrival computation for Space Weather applications and for the need of present and future interplanetary missions, since it could be used as quick tool to forecast the arrival of ICME to planetary bodies in our Solar System other than the Earth.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 530 Fisica
Depositing User: Marina Spanti
Date Deposited: 27 Nov 2020 14:19
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2020 14:19

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