Long-term forecasting of extreme catastrophic events

Palumbo, A. (2004) Long-term forecasting of extreme catastrophic events. Bollettino della società dei naturalisti in Napoli, 2004.


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Abstract (First part: Volcanic, tectonic and oceanic systems). The simple application of the principle of the constancy of the average power to the examined volcanic, tectonic and oceanic systems, has allowed the long term forecasting of their critical state. The same results were obtained by means of the application of the Palumbo map and of its orbit. Both the models emphasize the importance of small events in releasing energy and thence in procrastinating and reducing the intensity of the extreme events. When a system is in a critical state small external excitations may trigger a catastrophe. Such external sources have been identified and their triggering effects were verified in the occurrence of many large events when they were in critical state. These triggering forces are: earth tides, geomagnetic tides, solar activity and seismic waves. Earth tides trigger earthquakes, but their effects may be evidenced on]y on local sìtes. When many globally distributed earthquakes are considered no significant effect is discernible, since any effect is blurred by a multiplicity of unidentified fault orientations and stress regimes. The same does not hold for geomagnetic tides. The significant correlation obtained between geomagnetic tides and large scale earthquakes Is thus attributed to a magnetostrictive effect caused by the external geomagnetic fields and their variations (see the paper: Gravitational and geomagnetic tidal sources of earthquakes triggering). Such an effect may also explain the significant correlation obtained between the large scale earthquakes frequency and the solar activity related to geomagnetic activity. Seismic waves may trigger local earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, when they are in critical states. These has been proved for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius, and recently for the anomalous frequency of large earthquakes following the very intense event of December 26th in SE Asia. (Second part: a way to explode the myth of green house effect). Ten years ago, there was an international alert caused by the anthropogenic depletion of the ozone layer. It was shown that the phenomenon was due to natural sources (See book n. 1: L’Ecosistema Terra…..) and yet nowadays nobody talks about it any more. The same will happen for the green house effect. The global circulation models are not reliable, and the satellite observations show that the increase of global air temperature is very doubtful, mainly because the historical series of data were almost taken from the records of town stations largely affected by the urban heat island effect. We now propose two different mechanisms to explain the Sun-climate relationship: (i) max solar activity = > min ìncoming cosmic radiation => min clouds and their albedo => max T; (ii) max solar activity and max dynamo in the interior of Earth => max sea surface temperature=> max evaporation => max T. Moreover we will show that the elastic response of the climate system to the last little age, the large increase of solar activity, going on since the last two centuries, and the recent decrease of the largest volcanic eruptions are responsible for the secular variation of the observed global air temperature ‘T”. This would show a negligible influence of the other sources, Iike the green effect. On the other hand, should the greenhouse effect be actual, the increase would be even over than 3 °C in 2050, with an increase never recorded in the history of the Earth, that, therefore, could cause a catastrophe. Some geo-engineering remedies are proposed. The recent secular oceanic rise, attributed by the literature to the increase of green house gas concentration in the atmosphere, is found to be due to the rainfall, to the volcanic eruptions, to the fires and to the mankind waste water discharged in the oceans. Again, should the circulation models proposed by the literature be proved, then an increase around 30 cm should be expected in the next decades, with severe consequences for littorals areas like Venice and the mouths of the Nile.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: volcanic eruptions, Vesuvius, Phlaegrean Fields, Etna, world’s largest eruptions, earthquakes in South Italy, the violent earthquake in SE Asia of december 2004, EI Ninò, natural sources of climate changes, oceanic rise, natural green house effects, freak waves, Iong term forecasting, natural catastrophes, magnetostriction, seismic lights.
Subjects: 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 530 Fisica
500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 550 Scienze della Terra
Depositing User: professore antonino palumbo
Date Deposited: 03 May 2006
Last Modified: 20 May 2010 12:01
URI: http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/264

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