A climate distribution model of malaria transmission in Sudan

Musa, Mohammed I. and Shohaimi, Shamarina and Hashim, Nor R. and Krishnarajah, Isthrinayagy (2012) A climate distribution model of malaria transmission in Sudan. Geospatial health, 7 (1). pp. 27-36. ISSN 1970-7096

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Malaria remains a major health problem in Sudan. With a population exceeding 39 million, there are around 7.5 million cases and 35,000 deaths every year. The predicted distribution of malaria derived from climate factors such as maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and relative humidity was compared with the actual number of malaria cases in Sudan for the period 2004 to 2010. The predictive calculations were done by fuzzy logic suitability (FLS) applied to the numerical distribution of malaria transmission based on the life cycle characteristics of the Anopheles mosquito accounting for the impact of climate factors on malaria transmission. This information is visualized as a series of maps (presented in video format) using a geographical information systems (GIS) approach. The climate factors were found to be suitable for malaria transmission in the period of May to October, whereas the actual case rates of malaria were high from June to November indicating a positive correlation. While comparisons between the prediction model for June and the case rate model for July did not show a high degree of association (18%), the results later in the year were better, reaching the highest level (55%) for October prediction and November case rate.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fuzzy logic, climate suitability, malaria rate, geographical information system, mapping, Sudan
Subjects: 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 616 Malattie (classificare qui la Clinica medica, la medicina basata sull'evidenza, la Medicina interna, la Medicina sperimentale) > 616.9 Altre malattie (altri rami della Medicina) > 616.93 Infezioni da clostridium, difterite, colera, dissenterie, protozoosi > 616.936 Protozoosi > 616.9362 Malaria
Depositing User: Luca Tiberi
Date Deposited: 12 Sep 2019 09:54
Last Modified: 12 Sep 2019 09:54
URI: http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/6751

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