Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany

Fischer, Dominik and Thomas, Stephanie M. and Beierkuhnlein, Carl (2010) Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial health , 5 (1). pp. 56-69. ISSN 1970-7096

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to manifest in the shift of organisms to regions where they were not present in the past, potentially entailing previously unseen biological risks. However, studies evaluating these future trends are scarce. Here, an important group of vectors (sandflies) and the pathogen transmitted (Leishmania infantum complex) causing the infectious disease visceral leishmaniasis is investigated, focussing on potential establishment in Germany during the 21st century. As the most important habitat factor, temperature requirements of pathogen and vector were derived from the literature and compared with recent climate records - provided by worldclim - and climate change scenarios. Climate data from the Regional Climate Model REMO were obtained and averaged over the time periods 2011- 2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Projected temperature changes (based on the A1B and A2 scenarios) were correlated with the constraints of vector and pathogen. Simulated potentially suitable habitat areas for vector and pathogen were merged to generate a temperature-derived risk map of visceral leishmaniasis. Temperature conditions seem to become suitable for the vector across large swaths of Germany. Nevertheless, temperature constraints for the pathogen may defer the establishment of the parasitic disease, particularly during the first half of the 21st century. Long-lasting epidemics of visceral leishmaniasis are therefore not expected in Germany during the next few decades, although during extremely warm years an increase in autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis may occur. The southwest (Upper Rhine Valley) and west (Cologne Bight) of Germany are identified as risk areas. The time of potential establishment and corresponding rise in biological risk varies between scenarios, due to differences in the predicted rate of temperature increase.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change, global warming, Europe, leishmaniosis, kala-azar, Phlebotomus, vector-borne disease
Subjects:	500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 550 Scienze della Terra > 551.6 Climatologia e tempo atmosferico (Classificare qui i lo studio dei Cambiamenti climatici) 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.4 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubblica per prevenirle (classificare qui l'Epidemiologia, l'Epidemiologia clinica) > 614.42 Incidenza delle malattie, e misure pubbliche per prevenirle. Incidenza (classificare qui la prevalenza; la Geografia medica; l'Epidemiologia spaziale; i rilevamenti sanitari) 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 630 Agricoltura e tecnologie connesse > 636 Allevamento di animali > 636.7 Cani (Canis lupus familiaris) > 636.70896 Cani. Malattie > 636.7089696 Cani. Parassitosi e malattie causate da funghi (micosi) 900 Storia, Geografia e discipline ausiliarie > 910 Geografia e viaggi > 910.285 Geographic information systems
Depositing User:	biblioteca 7
Date Deposited:	05 Apr 2011 13:16
Last Modified:	05 Apr 2011 13:16
URI:	http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/3147

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