Modeling esternal risks in project management

Palomo, J. and Rios Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (2005) Modeling esternal risks in project management. Technical Report. CNR. Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche (IMATI). Sezione di Milano, Milano, IT. (Unpublished)

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To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes and similar project related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for costs, duration and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also accounting for external events that might abruptly change the "status quo". We provide a Bayesian framework for such problem, in which we predict the probability and the impact of various disruptive events and, consequently, a global forecast of project performance. We focus on project costs to introduce the methodology, but the ideas apply equally to project duration or performance forecasting.

Item Type: Monograph (Technical Report)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Expert's opinion; Project costing; Project risk; Decision analysis; Risk management; Bayesian analysis; Copula functions
Subjects: 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 510 Matematica
Depositing User: biblioteca 3
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2006
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2010 10:06

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