Palomo, J. and Rios Insua, D. and Ruggeri, F. (2005) Modeling esternal risks in project management. Technical Report. CNR. Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche (IMATI). Sezione di Milano, Milano, IT. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes and similar project related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for costs, duration and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also accounting for external events that might abruptly change the "status quo". We provide a Bayesian framework for such problem, in which we predict the probability and the impact of various disruptive events and, consequently, a global forecast of project performance. We focus on project costs to introduce the methodology, but the ideas apply equally to project duration or performance forecasting.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Technical Report) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Expert's opinion; Project costing; Project risk; Decision analysis; Risk management; Bayesian analysis; Copula functions |
| Subjects: | 500 Scienze naturali e Matematica > 510 Matematica |
| Depositing User: | biblioteca 3 |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Mar 2006 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Oct 2010 10:06 |
| URI: | http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/90 |
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