Modeling and forecasting car ownership based on socio-economic and demographic indicators in Turkey

Ceylan, H. and Baskan, O. and Ozan, C. (2018) Modeling and forecasting car ownership based on socio-economic and demographic indicators in Turkey. TeMA Journal of Land Use, Mobility and Environment, SP/01 (01/18). pp. 47-66. ISSN 1970-9870

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Abstract

Since car ownership is an important determinant to analyze car travel behavior especially in developing countries, this paper deals with modeling and forecasting car ownership in Turkey based on socio-economic and demographic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product(GDP) per capita, Gasoline Price (GP), car price and number of employees by using multiple nonlinear regression analysis. Although most of the studies on this subject prefer using annual data, we use monthly data for the analysis of car ownership since all explanatory variables and exchange rates used for the modeling are unstable and vary even in a short period in developing countries such as Turkey. Thus, it may be possible to reflect the effects of socio-economic and demographic indicators on car ownership more properly. During the modeling process, exponential and polynomial nonlinear regression models are set up and then tested to investigate their applicability for car ownership forecasting. Based on results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the polynomial models has been selected to forecast car ownership for the year 2035. In order to reveal the possible different trends of the independent variables in future, car ownership is forecasted along the scenarios which are related to the GDP per capita and GP. Results show that Turkey’s car ownership may vary between 230 and 325 per thousand capita in 2035 depending on economic achievements, global oil prices and national taxation policies. The lowest and the highest values of the car ownership may provide insight to car producers and transport planners in Turkey. Another significant result presented in this study is that car ownership rate will be substantially lower in Turkey than that in the European Union countries despite it has an increasing trend in the past two decades.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	700 Arti, Belle arti e Arti decorative > 710 Urbanistica e paesistica > 711 Urbanistica (Pianificazione territoriale) (Classificare le opere d'insieme su Urbanistica e Architettura in 720; classificare le opere interdisciplinari sull'Urbanistica in 307.12) 700 Arti, Belle arti e Arti decorative > 710 Urbanistica e paesistica > 711 Urbanistica (Pianificazione territoriale) (Classificare le opere d'insieme su Urbanistica e Architettura in 720; classificare le opere interdisciplinari sull'Urbanistica in 307.12) > 711.5 Pianificazione per specifici tipi di area (Classificare qui la pianificazione per il recupero urbano di specifici tipi di area) 700 Arti, Belle arti e Arti decorative > 710 Urbanistica e paesistica > 711 Urbanistica (Pianificazione territoriale) (Classificare le opere d'insieme su Urbanistica e Architettura in 720; classificare le opere interdisciplinari sull'Urbanistica in 307.12) > 711.7 Infrastrutture per i trasporti
Depositing User:	Rosa Anna La Rocca
Date Deposited:	05 Jul 2018 08:36
Last Modified:	05 Jul 2018 16:09
URI:	http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/18014

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