Modeling the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to predict Japanese encephalitis distribution in the Republic of Korea

Masuoka, Penny and Klein, Terry A. and Kim, Heung Chul and Claborn, David M. and Achee, Nicole and Andre, Richard and Chamberlin, Judith and Small, Jennifer and Anyamba, Assaf and Lee, Dong-Kyu and Yi, Suk H. and Sardelis, Michael and Ju, Young-Ran and Grieco, John (2010) Modeling the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to predict Japanese encephalitis distribution in the Republic of Korea. Geospatial health , 5 (1). pp. 45-57. ISSN 1970-7096

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Abstract

Over 35,000 cases of Japanese encephalitis (JE) are reported worldwide each year. Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of the JE virus, while wading birds are natural reservoirs and swine amplifying hosts. As part of a JE risk analysis, the ecological niche modeling programme, Maxent, was used to develop a predictive model for the distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the Republic of Korea, using mosquito collection data, temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The resulting probability maps from the model were consistent with the known environmental limitations of the mosquito with low probabilities predicted for forest covered mountains. July minimum temperature and land cover were the most important variables in the model. Elevation, summer NDVI (July-September), precipitation in July, summer minimum temperature (May-August) and maximum temperature for fall and winter months also contributed to the model. Comparison of the Cx. tritaeniorhynchus model to the distribution of JE cases in the Republic of Korea from 2001 to 2009 showed that cases among a highly vaccinated Korean population were located in high-probability areas for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. No recent JE cases were reported from the eastern coastline, where higher probabilities of mosquitoes were predicted, but where only small numbers of pigs are raised. The geographical distribution of reported JE cases corresponded closely with the predicted high-probability areas for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, making the map a useful tool for health risk analysis that could be used for planning preventive public health measures.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Culex tritaeniorhynchus, geographical distribution, ecological niche modeling, Japanese encephalitis virus, Republic of Korea
Subjects:	600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.4 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubblica per prevenirle (classificare qui l'Epidemiologia, l'Epidemiologia clinica) > 614.42 Incidenza delle malattie, e misure pubbliche per prevenirle. Incidenza (classificare qui la prevalenza; la Geografia medica; l'Epidemiologia spaziale; i rilevamenti sanitari) 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.4 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubblica per prevenirle (classificare qui l'Epidemiologia, l'Epidemiologia clinica) > 614.43 Vettori di malattie e malattie trasmesse attraverso l’acqua (classificare qui il controllo delle infezioni che portano malattie) > 614.432 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubbliche per prevenirle. Vettori di malattie e malattie trasmesse attraverso l’acqua. Insetti > 614.4323 Zanzare 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.5 Incidenza di specifiche malattie e tipi di malattia e misure pubbliche per prevenirle > 614.57 Malattie batteriche (include le infezioni da escherichia coli, da pseudomonas, da micoplasma) 900 Storia, Geografia e discipline ausiliarie > 910 Geografia e viaggi > 910.285 Geographic information systems
Depositing User:	biblioteca 7
Date Deposited:	05 Apr 2011 13:18
Last Modified:	05 Apr 2011 13:18
URI:	http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/3146

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