A temperature-limited assessment of the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission and establishment in the continental United States of America

Konrad, Sarah K. and Miller, Scott N. (2012) A temperature-limited assessment of the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission and establishment in the continental United States of America. Geospatial health , 6 (2). pp. 161-170. ISSN 1970-7096

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Abstract

The rapid spread of West Nile virus across North America after its introduction in 1999 highlights the potential for foreign arboviruses to become established in the United States of America. Of particular concern is Rift Valley fever virus(RVFV), which has been responsible for multiple African epidemics resulting in death of both humans and livestock, as well as major economic disruption due to livestock loss and trade restrictions. Modern globalization, travel, and commerce allow viruses to easily jump from one continent to another; and it is likely only a matter of time before RVFV reaches North American shores. We used a degree-day model in combination with livestock population data and a pathways analysis to identify regions and times where RVFV is most likely to enter and become established in the United States of America. Transmission risk of the disease varies across the country from 325 annual risk days in parts of Florida to zero risk days in the far North and in high mountain regions. Areas of particular concern are where there are a high number of possible transmission days, a large livestock population, and proximity to likely locations for the disease to enter the country via mosquito vector or human host. These areas should be monitored closely during transmission “risk seasons” so that if the virus does enter the country and begins to become established, it can be quickly controlled and eliminated before spreading further. Areas most at risk include the Baltimore and New York City metro areas as well as much of the region between these urban centers; most of Texas, especially around Houston; Florida; Atlanta; southwest Nebraska; southern California and Arizona; and the central valley of California

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Rift Valley fever, virus transmission, Culex tarsalis, United States of America, geographical information systems, West Nile virus
Subjects:	600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.4 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubblica per prevenirle (classificare qui l'Epidemiologia, l'Epidemiologia clinica) > 614.43 Vettori di malattie e malattie trasmesse attraverso l’acqua (classificare qui il controllo delle infezioni che portano malattie) > 614.432 Incidenza delle malattie e misure pubbliche per prevenirle. Vettori di malattie e malattie trasmesse attraverso l’acqua. Insetti > 614.4323 Zanzare 600 Tecnologia - Scienze applicate > 610 Medicina e salute (Classificare qui la tecnologia dei servizi medici) > 614 Medicina legale; incidenza delle malattie; Medicina preventiva pubblica > 614.5 Incidenza di specifiche malattie e tipi di malattia e misure pubbliche per prevenirle > 614.58 Malattie da virus > 614.588 Infezioni da virus a RNA (Include la febbre da zecche del Colorado, la febbre della valle del Rift, le infezioni da hantavirus, le infezioni da retroviridae) 900 Storia, Geografia e discipline ausiliarie > 910 Geografia e viaggi > 910.285 Geographic information systems
Depositing User:	Chiara Ceccucci
Date Deposited:	13 Aug 2012 14:34
Last Modified:	13 Aug 2012 14:34
URI:	http://eprints.bice.rm.cnr.it/id/eprint/4191

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